1. No rise in enrollment ratios 4 -3 -2 high fertility rn.n.n.n n . H . H™'"' HHH Expenditure saved if fertility declines. PERCENT OF 2 R, , enro||ment ratios Q.N.P. 7 6 • high fertility declining fertility 5 (• m n 4 n n 3 n 2 n 1 n -n .1 1 , , , , 1 I , 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 I Expenditure saved if fertility declines. 3. Rising enrollment rates, improving teacher/pupil ratios' ;n,n. - - • 1 1 1 high fertility declining fertility 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 HBH Expenditure saved if fertility declines. •' Assuming that teacher salaries decline from 80 percent to 65 percent of total recurrent expenditvre between 1960 and 1980. Figure 4. Education costs as a percentage of GNP, 1960-1990. the quantity and quality of education provided or merely to maintain the status quo.* Nevertheless, in a country such as Pakistan, where enrollment rates are low to begin with, the massive increase in enrollments and teacher *In 1980 the percent of GNP required in the high fertility case exceeds that in the rapidly declining fertility case by 13.9 percent if enrollment rates are held constant, by 10.4 percent if enrollment rates are raised, and by 9.4 percent if pupil/teacher rates arehe non-teacher salary component of recurrent costs raised, education's share of the GNP climbs to 6 percent and above by 1985, even if fertility declines rapidly. This figure does not include the costs of higher education, including teacher training, which will also be increasing and might well account for a further 1 or 2 percent of GNP by the end of the projection period. At the present time 8 percent of GNP is as much as any country in the world spends on education, and although it would not be impossible for Pakistan to reach this level from the 1.7 percent of GNP actually spent on education in 1965, this would require a very basic reordering of priorities.